Project leader:
Tursunova Aisulu Alashevna, Candidate of Geological Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of Water Resources Laboratory.
Project Objective:
To assess current and forecast hydrological changes in typical catchments of rivers in Kazakhstan under different natural and climatic conditions, to provide high-quality forecast information on timing and volumes of floods and low water periods against the background of climate change, using modern GIS technologies and hydrological modeling.
Expected results:
1) Assessment of hydrological characteristics, trends in intra-annual distribution of flow of the rivers Buktyrma, Yesil, Zhaiyk.
2) Modeling of river runoff using SWIM ecological-hydrological model, adaptation to river conditions, calibration and verification on independent period (verification).
3) Investigation of runoff change and its intra-annual distribution under conditions of global warming and glaciation reduction.
4) Analysis of existing climate change scenarios, selection of appropriate ones for the region. Downloading and processing of optimal climate projections.
5) Obtaining prognostic modeled values of runoff of the rivers Buktyrma, Yesil, Zhaiyk for the perspective up to 2099.
6) Assessment and analysis of intra-annual runoff distributions of the studied rivers for the long-term perspective (up to 2099) taking into account climate change projections.
7) Based on the modeled HEC-Ras model data, construction and design of floodplain inundation area maps.
Main results obtained:
1) The hydrological characteristics, trends in the intra-annual distribution of flow of the rivers Buktyrma, Yesil, Zhaiyk were assessed.
2) River runoff was modeled using SWIM ecological-hydrological model, adapted to river conditions, calibrated and checked on an independent period (validation).
3) Flow change and its intra-annual distribution under conditions of global warming and glaciation reduction were investigated.
4) Existing climate change scenarios were analyzed and the appropriate ones for the region were selected. Optimal climate projections were downloaded and processed.
5) Prognostic modeled values of runoff of the rivers Buktyrma, Yesil, Zhaiyk for the perspective up to 2099 were obtained.
6) Intra-annual runoff distributions of the rivers under study were estimated and analyzed for the long-term perspective (up to 2099) taking into account climate change projections.
7) Based on the modeled data using the HEC-Ras model, maps of floodplain inundation areas of the rivers were constructed and drawn up.
Publications:
1) Smagulov Zh., Makhmudova L., Alimkulov S., Talipova E., Zagidullina A., Birimbayeva L., Sailaubek A. Transformation of seasonal distribution of river flow in the Zhaiyk–Caspian water basin under changing climate conditions //Journal of Water and Climate Change. – 2025. – Т. 16. – №. 2. – 400-429 p.
https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article/16/2/400/106425/Transformation-of-seasonal-distribution-of-river
2) Nurbatsina A., Salavatova Zh., Tursunova A., Didovets I., Huthoff F., Rodrigo-Clavero M.E., Rodrigo-Ilarri J. Flood Modelling of the Zhabay River Basin Under Climate Change Conditions //Hydrology. – 2025. – Т. 12. – №. 2. – 35 p.
https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/2/35
3) Tursunova A., Nurbatsina A., Salavatova Zh., Huthoff F. Sustainability Challenges in Kazakhstan’s River Systems: Assessing Climate-Induced Hydrological Changes //Sustainability. – 2025. – Т. 17. – №. 8. – С. 3405.
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/8/3405
4) Nurbatsina A. A., Tursunova A. A., Salavatova Zh. Т. Intra-annual distribution of runoff of typical rivers of Kazakhstan (on the example of the rivers Buktyrma, Esil, Zhaiyk) // Hydrometeorology and Ecology. - 2025. - №. 1 (116). 24-37 p.
https://journal.kazhydromet.kz/index.php/kazgidro/article/view/2349
Международные конференции:
1) Nurbatsina A., Tursunova A., Kanay M., Salavatova Zh., Didovets I. Adaptation of the SWIM hydrological model for forecasting the flow of the Zhabay River during floods/floods //EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. – 2024. – 3900 p.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024EGUGA..26.3900N/abstract
2) Nurbatsina A. A., Tursunova A. A. Influence of Climate Change on the flow of the BUCKYRMA River: Evaluation and Forecast // Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference “Glacier Conservation and Efficient Use of Water Resources in Central Asia” dedicated to the “2025-International Year of Glacier Conservation”. - 2024. - 126-135 p.
https://www.rceeca.tj/books/Mavodho_conf.pdf
Field and laboratory studies: In order to improve the efficiency of the results of hydrological studies, measurements were carried out, including various experiments to study the objects of interest by contact methods; the comprehensiveness of the studies was characterized by the use of satellite and ground data, which were subsequently combined into a geographic information system.
Field studies included reconnaissance and hydrometric works (determination of high-water levels, measurement of water discharge, construction of river cross-sectional profiles, etc.) on the rivers of the study basin.
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