Project manager:
Blagoveshchensky Viktor Petrovich - Doctor of Geographical Sciences. Chief Researcher of the Laboratory of Natural Hazards of the Institute of Geography and Water Safety of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan. victor.blagov@mail.ru. ORCID: 0000-0002-8032-283X /
Objective of the project:
To create a scientific and applied substantiation of mudflow, landslide and avalanche safety in the mountainous regions of Ile and Zhetysu Alatau of Almaty and Zhetysu regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the development of a system of measures to ensure life safety and reduce the risk of natural disasters.
Expected results:
1. A database of hazardous exogenous processes (HEP) will be compiled.
2. Topographic maps and satellite images will be digitized.
3. Meteorological conditions of HEP formation will be studied.
4. The degree and age of HEP will be deciphered.
5. Ground and aerial visual surveys of HEP formation centers will be conducted.
6. An assessment will be made and HEP risk level maps will be compiled for 2024 in Ile Alatau and in 2025 in Zhetysu Alatau.
7. An assessment will be made and HEP hazard maps will be compiled for 2024 in Ile Alatau and in 2025 in Zhetysu Alatau.
8. HEP modeling will be performed.
9. UAV survey of the EPF will be performed and a digital elevation model will be created.
10. An assessment of the exposure of EPF objects in Ile Alatau in 2024 and in Zhetysu Alatau in 2025 will be performed.
The main results obtained:
1. A methodology for assessing and mapping the degree of danger and risk level of mudflows, avalanches and landslides has been developed.
2. EPF manifestations have been deciphered.
3. Ground and aerial visual surveys of EPF foci have been conducted.
4. Objects exposed to EPF have been identified.
5. Aerial photography of especially important objects has been performed using UAVs.
6. Computer modeling of mudflow movement has been performed.
7. An assessment has been made and maps of the hazards and risks of mudflows, avalanches and landslides in Ile and Kungei Alatau have been compiled.
8. Data on meteorological conditions for the formation of the OEP for 2024 has been collected.
9. 4 scientific articles have been published in journals recommended by CONCVO and 1 article in 2025 in the international journal SCOPUS.
Publications according to GOST with an active link:
For 2024
In domestic journals:
1. Zhdanov V.V., Kuzhageldina N.U., Kamalbekova A.N., Aldabergen U.R. Statistical analysis of long-term data on avalanches and snow-meteorological conditions in the Ile-Alatau Mountains. Geography and water resources. No. 2, 2024. https://doi.org/10.55764/2957-9856/2024-2-99-110.16 (Recommended by KOKNVO)
2. Zhdanov V.V., Kuzhageldina N.U., Kamalbekova A.N., Aldabergen U.R. Typification of winters in Ile-Alatau by snowiness and avalanche activity. "Hydrometeorology and Ecology", No. 1 (112), 2024, P. 89-99. https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-89-99 (Recommended by KOKNVO)
3. Tolepbaeva, A., Karagulova, R., Eszhanova, A., Tanbaeva, A., Radusnova, O., & Kamalbekova, A. (2024). Using space imagery data to update the vector cartographic basis of thematic maps (on the example of the mountainous regions of Ile and Zhetysu Alatau). Bulletin of KazNU. Geographical series, 74(3), 36–50. https://doi.org/10.26577/JGEM.2024.v74.с3-04
4. Popov N. V., Ranova S. U., Kamalbekova A. N., Aldabergen U. R. Quantitative assessment of glacial mudflow hazard in Ile Alatau. Geography and water resources. No. 4, 2024. (Recommended by KOKNVO)
For 2025
In international journals:
1. Zhdanov, V.; Blagovechshenskiy, V.; Medeu, A.; Aldabergen, U.; Kamalbekova, A., Ranova S. Anchor Ice Dams and Water–Ice Flows on the Rivers of the Mountains of Southeastern Kazakhstan. Water 2025, 17, 81 https://doi.org/10.3390/w17010081
5. Field and laboratory studies in brief and with photographs
1. Expeditionary surveys of snow avalanches, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls were carried out jointly with the Department of Emergency Situations and the State Institution "Kazselezashchita".
2. Surveys of landslide-prone areas by order of the Seismic Safety Department of the Akimat of Almaty.
3. Participation in preventive descents of snow avalanches.
a) the embankment of the Esentai River, littered with ice blocks; (b) the canalized riverbed, filled with broken ice; (c) the steel gratings of the embankment, distorted by the impact of ice blocks; (d) the head of the water-ice flow hits an excavator standing on the bottom of the mudflow basin.
Consequences of the water-ice flow on the river. Esentai December 16, 2023
6. Link to social networks (Facebook. Instagram and the IGBG website)
Seminar with the public on the danger of snow avalanches in the spring of 2025 https://ulysmedia.kz/ulys-travel/49108-lavinoopasnaia-ottepel-kak-khodit-v-gory-bez-ugrozy-dlia-zdorovia-i-zhizni/
